Friday, February 5, 2016

Citi: World economy seems trapped in ‘death spiral’

Trying to inform new preppers about the risks of our economic system sometimes finds the preparedness community repeatedly using sites like SHTF Plan or The Economic Collapse Blog as a reference, and sometimes these sites might seem a little "out there" to the mainstream public.  That's why I try to use a variety of sources for information.

According to a CNBC report, Citi Bank analysts are concerned that the world economy is sliding back into recession after weak economic data in China and the U.S. and a massive equity decline in Japan.

"The world appears to be trapped in a circular reference death spiral," Citi strategists led by Jonathan Stubbs said in a report on Thursday.
"Stronger U.S. dollar, weaker oil/commodity prices, weaker world trade/petrodollar liquidity, weaker EM (and global growth)... and repeat. Ad infinitum, this would lead to Oilmageddon, a 'significant and synchronized' global recession and a proper modern-day equity bear market."
Stubbs said that macro strategists at Citi forecast that the dollar would weaken in 2016 and that oil prices were likely bottoming, potentially providing some light at the end of the tunnel.
"The death spiral is in nobody's interest. Rational behavior, most likely, will prevail," he said in the report.

Crude oil prices have tumbled by around 70 percent since the middle of 2014, during which time the U.S. dollar has risen by around 20 percent against a basket of currencies. 

As preppers, we need to be ready to weather this storm:

  • Ensure you have some cash on hand just in case of bank disruptions
  • Increase your stockpile of food.  Look to maximize your buys with coupons, but remember, buy what you eat, and eat what you buy. make sure you stock up on condiments and spices as well.
  • Buy extra of essential household items like light bulbs, cleaning supplies, and personal hygiene items.  There is a reason that toilet paper was a medium of exchange in the old Soviet Union.
  • Reduce your debt.  Search for items you don't use anymore and put it on Craigslist.  Figure out where you can cut back on monthly bills.  
  •  Take care of any medical conditions or needs - dental work, elective surgeries, vision exams, glasses, etc.
  • Stock up on over the counter medications and refill prescriptions at the earliest possible dates to maximize your on hand supply
  • Make sure your vehicles are in good working order.  Perform preventative maintenance  on the schedule prescribed by the manual.   You may be keeping the car for awhile if your financial situation tightens.
  • Search for a second source of income. Be creative and put your talents to use.

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